New clues on immigration in second Trump term

If Donald Trump is sworn in as US President on January 20, 2025, what will that mean for US immigration policy? Many look forward to cracking down on illegal immigration. However, recent clues and past actions suggest that the more significant impact of Trump’s second presidency will be on legal immigration, including the admission of refugees, family immigrants and high-skilled professionals.

Personnel is policy: “Previous President Trump’s top allies are preparing to radically reshape the federal government if he is re-elected, purging potentially thousands of civil servants and filling career posts with loyalists to him and his ‘America First‘ ideology. . . the core of the program comes from An executive order known as “Schedule F,” according to Love News. The publication also report American Moment, a pro-Trump group, wants to replace current federal workers with “applicants who want to reduce illegal and legal immigration to the United States.”

It’s easy to see how this could lead to stricter immigration policies. At least one career government employee was reassigned after he was rejected in his first year lowering the annual refugee cap, so individuals cannot interfere in the future, according to White House adviser Stephen Miller. Border War: Inside Trump’s Attack on Migrants By Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Michael D. Shear.

Armed with the power to hire and fire civil servants, Trump officials could staff the federal government with anti-immigrant personnel. If Immigration, Businesses, and Lawyers Now Complain About USCIS .

Trump may fail again to reduce illegal immigration: In a second term, in the name of cracking down on illegal immigration, Trump administration officials will try to implement nearly every restrictive immigration measure considered in recent years. This would include removing the physical ability to apply for asylum after crossing the southern border, building more “walls,” increasing the use of expedited deportation and other policies.

Given that Donald Trump failed to reduce illegal immigration for the first time, there is no reason to believe that a similar policy would be successful if tried again. During the Trump administration, FY 2016 and FY 2019concerns at the southwest border (representative of illegal entry) Increase From 408,870 to 851,508 – an increase of over 100%.While the Covid-19 pandemic led to a decline in anxiety over a few months starting in March 2020, in August and September 2020, it was Approximate level of illegal entry The same month in fiscal 2019.In short, Donald Trump’s policies have failed to reduce illegal immigration and were enacted at huge human cost, especially for parent and child separated at the border.

The Biden administration has largely continued Trump’s border policies, namely Title 42, which allows the individual to be deported without further processing. Title 42 is supposed to be a public health measure, but it has been used to deter many people from applying for asylum.These policies heighten Border Patrol concerns and encourage people to enter illegally, often multiple times, possibly Make boundaries more problematic. A federal judge has order The Biden administration retains Article 42.

Department of Homeland Security report shows that over the years, stricter enforcement has significantly increased the number of migrants crossing the border using people smugglers (i.e., almost everyone crossing the border now employs a smuggler). These policies have also led to an increase in loss of life. July 2022, 53 Immigrant suffocation Inside a tractor trailer in San Antonio.

Against legal immigration: Ironically, the Trump administration may try everything to crack down on illegal immigration, but one that has proven effective in reducing illegal immigration: making it easier for people to enter and work legally in the United States.

Research Research from the National Foundation for National Policy (NFAP) found that in the 1950s, under the Bracero program, there was a significant increase in the legal entry of farm workers, which greatly reduced illegal entry into the United States. Between 1953 and 1959, illegal entry to the southwest border fell by 95 percent, as more farm workers entered legally, according to border concerns.

Trump’s immigration policies could undermine long-term U.S. economic growth: Labor force growth is an important part of economic growth, and without it, Americans would be poorer or have stagnant living standards.

Those who think Donald Trump only cares about restrictions Unlawful Immigrants have problems – it’s not true.Unlike any president before him, Trump uses executive power extensively Restrictions on legal immigration under Section 212(f) Suspension of entry for multiclass immigrants and temporary visa holders. In 2020, this blocked the entry of workers and professionals on temporary visas, as well as immigrants on family, employment and diversity visas. He also set the lowest refugee admission ceiling of any president.

Assuming another term, where refugee admissions are expected to be extremely low, Trump would use Section 212(f) to bypass Congress and block the entry of many immigrants and visa holders. Immigration bans in some Muslim-majority countries may be reinstated.

The impact of Trump’s policies will have a devastating effect on future economic growth in the United States.National Foundation for American Policy analyze It concluded that if Trump’s policies continued, legal immigration would be cut in half and “average annual labor force growth would be about 59% lower than a policy that did not reduce immigration.”

In 2021 and 2022, the United States sees the negative impact of Trump’s immigration policies, An estimated 2 million immigrant workers are missing from the U.S. workforce Accused of reducing U.S. economic output and fueling inflation. Another four years of similar policies could have more negative outcomes, possibly with longer-term effects, if implemented through legislation.

Trump may drive more international students and high-skilled professionals out of the U.S.: During the Trump administration, many International students transferring from the USmainly to Canada, where employers see H-1B petition rejection rates soar. If the entire Trump immigration agenda for highly educated foreigners is realized, the U.S. is expected to lose even more talent.

Businesses and universities should expect that every idea or regulation the Trump administration has failed to implement will be tried again. That would mean:

– new restrictions on who is eligible for H-1B petitions and how (and where) H-1B visa holders work;

– Require employers to pay well above market wages for H-1B visa holders and employees granted permanent residency;

– New restrictions on international students and Optional Practical Training (OPT) and other policies.

There is no evidence that such policies would help American worker or American students–Evidence reveal the opposite is correct. The damage to the U.S. economy and future innovation will be real.

Between 2017 and 2020, lawyers representing businesses, universities and immigrant rights groups successfully blocked multiple Trump policies. The task will be more difficult the second time around, as former Trump officials will learn from their mistakes and have a new four-year window to implement restrictive immigration policies.

What would a different Republican president do? Another Republican president, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, could adopt many of Trump’s illegal immigration policies. However, DeSantis (or another Republican) may not allow Stephen Miller to return to the White House. Without Mueller, another Republican president would likely pursue a legal immigration policy that is more in line with mainstream economists’ views, especially given the GOP’s potential to reach Asian and Latino voters.

New restrictions on American liberties: Trump’s most important policy will limit legal immigration, economists say Injury innovation and reduce U.S. economic growth. But the impact will be wider.

“Immigration restrictions are the government’s prohibition of locals from engaging in various economic activities,” according to Economist Michael Clemens. By this standard, Trump’s second term will mean consumers who want to enjoy the products and services immigrants provide, Americans who want to sponsor family members, and employers who want to hire foreign-born scientists and engineers to compete in the global economy The degrees of freedom are reduced.

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