NFL bettors show Bucs, Brady don’t respect season win percentage

Tom Brady is going to die soon, right?  ... correct?

Tom Brady is going to die soon, right? … correct?
photo: Getty Images

A story as old as time, a song as old as a rhyme: “Brady will fall this year.”

Like Samuel L. Jackson’s character Jules at the end of Pulp Fiction, people have been saying this shit for years, but Brady deniers Come out of the woods year after year and spit out the most outrageous and disrespectful crap. Whether it was Max Kellerman and his infamous “cliff theory” 2016, or Miami Dolphins Allegedly Select Ryan Fitzpatrick Beating Brady in 2020, the three-time MVP continues to exceed expectations every step of the way. But hey, after he led the league in yards, touchdowns and completions for a year while finishing second in MVP voting, this Will be the season we see recession!

According to Caesars Sportsbook editorial content writer Max Meyer, the Buccaneers’ 11.5 wins are the most lopsided bets for Caesars, with 87.8% of bettors betting that Brady won’t hit 12 wins in 2022.

OK, let’s break it down from a basic perspective.The first thing I want to point out is that Brady is so confident in his abilities that he Willing to go to the Miami Dolphins, arguably they have worse catches, definitely worse offense, definitely worse defense, definitely in a tougher division, and have a rookie head coach — all at 45. Yes, I know he wants to be with his family, but Brady also wants to win. He likes to win, and he’s willing to give up a team he won the Super Bowl to play with an objectively worse offense in a harder division. That should tell you everything you need to know about his confidence in his ability this season.

That’s just Brady. There are other factors that will affect the team’s performance in the upcoming season. Clearly, the Buccaneers are in worse shape than they were a year ago. Team lost guard Alex Capa, guard Ali Mapet, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Antonio Brown, with wide receiver Chris Godwin likely to miss Time and repair of his torn ACL.Left tackle Tristan Wirfs also has injury issues after having to take Ankle Surgery During the Playoffs last year.The Buccaneers may not be able to make up for all of those losses, but the addition of Russell Gage and Julio Jones minimizes potential damage at the wide receiver position, and second-round pick guard Luke Goldeck is also expected to make up for any. when the loopholes may be left Mapette retires. There are still some holes, but nothing is insurmountable as long as injuries don’t destroy the team’s talent.

The defense has remained more or less the same. certainly, Jordan Whitehead is out Will hurt, especially after the huge impact he showed last year, but again, it’s not a loss the Pirates can’t overcome.

Now let’s consider their schedule. Starting in 2021, the Buccaneers will play eight games against playoff teams (Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Chiefs and Steelers). While only four of those games will be played at home, four will be on the road against the Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers and Cardinals — arguably the four worst teams on this list . I also don’t think it’s fair to say that every one of these teams (except maybe the 49ers) has gotten worse this offseason. In addition, the Cardinals game will be held in December. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is coming in late October, so we know Kyler Murray won’t reach his full potential.

The Buccaneers did have some other tough games, though, especially against the Ravens, Browns and Saints. Obviously, the Buccaneers and Saints are going home and home to each other because they’re in the same division. As for the Browns and Ravens, the Buccaneers do have to face Baltimore (Thursday Night Football) in just one week, but the game will be in Tampa. We don’t know who the Browns’ quarterback will be when the Buccaneers take on Cleveland in Cleveland, but even if Deshaun Watson is able to play this game, it’ll be up against a Buccaneers team that’s coming to the end of a bye. They will be fresh and relaxing. Meanwhile, the Browns will play Buffalo on the road. They could have been beaten badly.

Of course, the Saints may have Brady’s number. So, let’s assume the Saints win both games. Brady struggled early in the season too, right? So, let’s assume he starts 2-2. The Buccaneers will beat the Falcons, Steelers and Panthers. Suppose they lost to the Ravens and Rams. It’s been four losses, the fifth against the Saints three weeks later. They’ll beat the Seahawks, and given everything I said in the last paragraph, they’ll probably beat the Browns (also a great game because the Buccaneers defense is killing the run), lose to the Saints, and then Beat the 49ers (unless Trey Lance batting expectations) and then they have two tough games against the Bengals and Cardinals before the season ends against the Panthers and Falcons. By my estimate, the Buccaneers are 10-7, half a game behind Caesar’s. But let’s say they beat the Saints once this year (I don’t think it’s impossible). They probably beat the Cardinals anyway. They could also beat the Tigers, Rams and Packers. Their record could be as high as 14-3, two and a half games above the set market.

I can’t guarantee the Bucs will win 12 or more games next season. As I said, I can see them as low as 10-7. However, 87.8% of bettors don’t think the Buccaneers will win 12 or more games, meaning the Buccaneers are in a worse position now than they were a year ago. In two years in Florida, the Pirates’ worst record was 11-5. That was in a 16-game season. If they play 17 games in 2020, they have a good chance of winning 12.

I think 11.5 wins is a good position to put the Bucs on a 50-50 overall win rate in 2022, rather than the nearly 90-10 we’re currently seeing. Brady has never fallen in the past, and while that day will eventually come, what has he done to make us think it will come this year?

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