The man who once occupied the Oval Office has been holding rallies and supporting candidates across the country this primary season. From Michigan to Kansas to Arizona to Washington state, the past week has been a major test of his influence.
It is with Trump’s strength within the Republican Party that we begin our weekly digital journey.
However, the past week has provided evidence that Trump remains the center of power within the party.It matches other data showing the former president
may not be that powerful As before, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the Republican Party.
Trump-backed candidates swept Arizona’s key statewide primaries, including governor (Trump’s candidate beat a candidate backed by former Vice President Mike Pence), the U.S. Senate, the state attorney general and secretary of state. They all deny the fact that Joe Biden has legally won the 2020 presidential election.
Likewise, in Michigan, Trump-backed Tudor Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination. U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump after Jan. 6 last year, lost the Republican primary to another Trump-backed election denier in the Third Congressional District.
Trump’s pick for Kansas governor (Derek Schmidt)
won his primary as well as.
The former president has had a very successful Republican primary season with no incumbent or two incumbents due to redistricting. By my count, his candidates have won just under 90 percent of contested gubernatorial or congressional primaries that have no incumbent or two incumbents due to redistricting.
That’s a large number, even though his candidate won 96 percent of such primaries in the 2020 cycle.
So far, the only major race Trump candidates have lost over the past week is the open primary in Washington’s Fourth District. Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse advanced to the general election under the state’s top two primary systems, even though he voted to impeach Trump and had to survive Trump-approved Loren Culp ( Loren Culp), who has been in third place.
But even Newhouse’s progress proves that Trump remains the center of power in the Republican Party. As of Sunday, Newhouse had just over 25 percent of the primary vote, compared with just 34 percent of voters in the district who voted for the Republican candidate. For incumbents in Congress, this is very weak.
In fact, Newhouse and California’s David Wallado are the only Republicans so far to vote to impeach Trump and make it to the November ballot, having garnered about 25 percent of the primary vote. Both do so in the primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are cast on the same ballot, with the top two winners advanced to November — meaning there are plenty of non-Republicans voting.
Given the national polls, Trump’s success in the primaries this season should come as no surprise. His very popular rating among Republicans is in his 50s. That’s down from around 70 percent at the end of the 2020 campaign, but it means more than half of Republicans really like Trump. No other active candidate comes close to that level of adoration.
When it comes to candidates who aren’t Trump, few non-incumbents have ever polled at or above the level Trump is currently in early national presidential primaries — his approval rating is around 50%
National primaries.
The non-Trump candidates to do so in the modern primary era appear to be Democrat Al Gore in 1998 and Hillary Clinton in 2014. Both won their party’s nominations in the next presidential election.
The closest Republicans were George H.W. Bush in 1986 and George W. Bush in 1998. Both are in their 40s in the polls and would go on to win the Republican nomination.
While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis did have a national victory over Trump, he still trailed him by about 25 points.
Perhaps the best way to understand Trump’s standing in the Republican Party is to look at the verbs “can” and “will.” If Trump decides to run for the Republican nomination, he could be defeated. However, he will be hard to beat.
A hazy picture of three months before Election Day
Before we get ahead of ourselves in all the talk in 2024, there’s a big election coming this year! With only about three months to go until mid-2022, the situation becomes more uncertain as the date approaches.
Usually, midterm
follow a simple pattern. The White House party loses seats in Congress (especially the House of Representatives).especially when
current president The approval rate is less than 50%. Biden’s approval rating is below 40 percent.
However,
Generic Congressional Vote getting tighter. The 3-point lead the Republicans held in May has now completely disappeared. (General ballots typically ask respondents some form of the following question: “If congressional elections were held today, would you vote Democrat or Republican?”)
This is unusual.Usually, a challenge party
improve its status In the mid-cycle general vote.
Ambiguity in national environment may relate to how voters feel
Important questions of the day. Yes, the economy is the number one concern. Yes, inflation is still at historically high levels. This has led to a decline in real disposable income per capita (that is, the money Americans have to spend).
However, some aspects of the economy are quite good or at least improved.we are
lowest unemployment rate For over 50 years.stock market
Woke up. Natural Gas Prices
down From their June peak.
Furthermore, there are other issues at play besides the economy. Abortion may be lower on voters’ priority lists than the economy, but more Americans than at any time since at least 1984 say it’s a top issue.
We saw last week that abortion can motivate voters. Democrats have seen a huge increase in voter turnout in Kansas compared to all other primaries so far this season.
Answering the question of who will control Congress next year also gets confusing in another way: The House and Senate may be controlled by different parties.
Democrats
may lose the House of Representatives, even if their national image has improved. They just have too much exposure.
Still, Democrats have been marginal in their efforts to retain control of the Senate.We’ve seen good polls of them in battleground states recently, like
Georgia and
Pennsylvania. The same polls show that Republicans are having trouble nominating unpopular candidates.
On top of that, those who run the election will be taking part in an exciting final three months of the 2022 campaign.
For your brief encounter: football has begun
America’s No. 1 campaign kicked off Thursday with the first preseason game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders on NBC.
Even though it’s a pointless thing, there are more than 5 million people
focus on. That’s just a fraction of the audience considering how many people watch the regular season. But as a sign of the strength of the NFL brand, the game was by far the most-watched show of the night.
Remember: preseason doesn’t matter.This
The last two teams Lose every regular-season game in a season, win every game in that preseason.
remaining data
Drinkers and non-drinkers actually agree: One
New Gallup Poll Shows that 75% of Americans believe that alcohol has a negative impact on society. This includes 85% of drinkers and 71% of non-drinkers.
own an electric car: While 67% of Americans favor offering incentives to increase the use of hybrid and electric vehicles, only 42% say they are at least likely to buy another car next time they buy.
Pew Research Center Poll. Only 16% is very likely.
winter is here: A winter storm warning has been active for Alaska this weekend as sweltering heat rages across much of the continental U.S. This suggests that summer cannot last year-round.After all we have
Lose more than 20 minutes of sunlight At the end of the day in New York City for the past few months.
