The chief of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that climate change has weakened the ability of meteorologists to accurately predict severe weather events.
in a article posted on sunday Hindustan TimesDr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra insists that climate change has exacerbated the unpredictability of weather patterns, making predictions more difficult.
“Climate change has increased atmospheric instability, leading to increased convective activity — thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rain,” Mohapatra said. “The severity of the Arabian Sea cyclone is also increasing.”
“The increased frequency of extreme weather events poses challenges for forecasters,” he continued. “The study shows that the ability to predict heavy rainfall is hampered by climate change.”
Because of this, IMD is enhancing its observation network by adding radars, automatic weather stations, rain gauges and satellites to improve the accuracy of weather forecasts.
“Climate change is a fact and we need to plan all our activities accordingly,” Mohapatra said.
Despite tremendous scientific progress, weather forecasts are known to remain inaccurate due to the inherent unpredictability of weather and the nearly infinite variables that affect outcomes, leading some scientists to question a more unreliable climate extending into the next few decades. predict.
Dr. Duane Thresher, a climate scientist at Columbia University and NASA’s GISS who has done pioneering work in proxy modeling of tree-ring climates and oceanic climates, asserts that climate models are inherently flawed.
“Climate models are just more complex/chaotic weather models with a theoretical maximum predictive power of only 10 days,” Thresher said. “Predicting the climate decades or even years into the future is a lie, albeit useful for publication and funding.”
Scientists use climate “proxies” such as tree rings and ice cores as a proxy for real climate measurements, Thresher said. The inferences drawn were “inaccurate and unreliable, far exceeding the requirements for drawing conclusions”.